Lazio vs Atalanta prediction
Serie A
Fri, 10 Jul · 19:45 WAT · 21:45 EAT
Lazio
Home0–1 · 68′19:45 WAT21:45 EAT
Atalanta
AwayModel call
away
Confidence37%
Home33%
Draw30%
Away37%
League model board
Serie A predictions
Independent home, draw and away probabilities published before kick-off, with the original call kept on the match page through live play and final review.
1 upcoming1 live0 reviewed
Demo league record
Performance in this competition
- Settled
- 5
- Top-pick hit rate
- 20.0%
- Brier score
- 0.215
Current board
Published match probabilities
Open a match to see its timestamp, model version, probability table and the factors behind the call. Fixture times are shown in WAT; readers in Kenya can add two hours for EAT.
Bologna vs Torino prediction
Serie A
Sun, 12 Jul · 16:00 WAT · 18:00 EAT
Bologna
Homevs16:00 WAT18:00 EAT
Torino
AwayModel call
home
Confidence46%
Home46%
Draw32%
Away22%
Competition-specific evidence
How Serie A predictions are evaluated
This Italy Serie A board shows the model's home, draw and away probabilities before kick-off and preserves each original call after the score is final.
Serie A performance is reported as its own slice of the ledger, including misses and probability quality rather than borrowing credibility from the combined headline number.
- Competition
- Serie A
- Country
- Italy
- Forecast
- Home · Draw · Away
- Evaluation
- Hit rate · Brier score · Calibration
Accountability
The record stays public
Demo model record
The numbers, including the misses.
Results are settled from the final score. No deleted picks, no edited probabilities, no hiding behind a winning streak.
- Hit rate
- 54.2%
- 13 of 24 settled picks
- Brier score
- 0.188
- Lower is better
- Hits / misses
- 13 / 11
- 54.2% observed
- Calibration gap
- 14.8 pts
- Weighted across buckets
Probability check
When we say 60%, how often does it happen?
| Model bucket | Predicted | Actual | Difference | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 40% | 37% | 20% | -17 pts | 5 |
| 40–49% | 45% | 71% | +26 pts | 7 |
| 50–59% | 55% | 50% | -5 pts | 8 |
| 60%+ | 65% | 75% | +11 pts | 4 |
Demo notice: accuracy figures on this preview are illustrative and are not a claim of live model performance.