Versioned methods · Reproducible tools
Every item fixes its formula, version, publication date and evidence boundary. These are editorial technical notes and deterministic tools—not anonymous accuracy claims or substitute peer review.
Published by Football Proof AI · Updated · Editorial technical note; not externally peer reviewedResearch register
Version identifiers make substantial changes visible. Citation counts below refer to the primary or authoritative sources linked by each item, not citations received by this site.
A reproducible guide to top-pick hit rate, multiclass Brier score, calibration, expected calibration error, log loss, Wilson intervals and honest baselines for 1X2 football forecasts.
A time-ordered validation protocol for football probability models with rolling-origin folds, point-in-time features, separate calibration windows and fixed acceptance gates.
A deterministic nearest-neighbour method for complete 1X2 probability distributions with Total Variation distance and a strict publication-time cutoff.
A browser-only integrity and scoring audit for a complete 1X2 prediction CSV, including timing failures, hit rate, uncertainty, Brier score, log loss, calibration and a SHA-256 receipt.
A paired browser-only evaluation of two pre-match 1X2 probability systems over the same settled matches using Brier score, log loss, hit rate and explicit uncertainty limits.
A browser-only decomposition of complete 1X2 football forecasts into direct multiclass Brier loss, classwise binned reliability, resolution, uncertainty, exposed within-bin variance and covariance corrections, and explicit baseline skill scores.
A transparent planning and inference calculator for football prediction hit-rate intervals, independent and paired comparisons, minimum detectable effects and paired Brier-score sample requirements.
A browser-only audit of declared walk-forward fold membership, prediction cutoffs, feature availability, training-outcome boundaries, duplicate matches and repeated test evidence.
Publication rules
A version proves which formula and explanation this site intended to publish. It cannot create independent validation, historical existence or model performance that the underlying evidence does not support.
Football Proof AI is the declared publisher and author. No fictional person, credential or reviewer is implied.
Statistical definitions link to original papers or authoritative technical documentation where available.
Small samples, time dependence, leakage, excluded rows and lack of external review remain visible beside conclusions.
A material formula or evidence-contract change receives a new version instead of silently inheriting an old citation.