Football Proof AIProbabilities with a public recordDemo data

Open record

Every prediction. Every result. No selective deletion.

This page is designed to be calculated from locked forecasts and final scores. Use it to judge both top-pick accuracy and whether the stated probabilities behave honestly over time.

At a glance

Demo model scorecard

Demo model record

The numbers, including the misses.

Results are settled from the final score. No deleted picks, no edited probabilities, no hiding behind a winning streak.

Hit rate
54.2%
13 of 24 settled picks
Brier score
0.188
Lower is better
Hits / misses
13 / 11
54.2% observed
Calibration gap
14.8 pts
Weighted across buckets

Probability check

When we say 60%, how often does it happen?

Predicted vs actual
Model bucketPredictedActualDifferenceMatches
Below 40%37%20%-17 pts5
40–49%45%71%+26 pts7
50–59%55%50%-5 pts8
60%+65%75%+11 pts4

A forecast earns trust by staying measurable after the whistle.

See every settled pick

Hit rate counts whether the highest-probability H/D/A outcome won. Brier score also measures the quality of all three probabilities; lower is better. Calibration compares stated confidence with what actually happened. Reproduce the calculation in the probability lab.

Citable evidence block

What this record covers, as of now

The cutoff, sample and model-version splits below are derived from the same rows as the public scorecard.

Settled cutoff
Evaluation window
Apr 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC – Jun 28, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Sample
24 settled forecasts
Coverage
5 leagues · 3 model versions

Uniform 1X2 reference

0.2222

Demo ledger score

0.1885

A fixed reference, not a performance claim

Giving home, draw and away 33.33% each produces a class-averaged Brier score of 0.2222, whichever outcome occurs. This demo ledger is 0.0337 below the uniform reference. The difference is descriptive and, by itself, does not establish model skill or statistical significance.

Demo performance by model version
Model versionSettledCorrectHit rateBrier
FPAI-LGBM 0.8.48675.0%0.143
FPAI-LGBM 0.8.88337.5%0.205
FPAI-LGBM 0.9.18450.0%0.218

Demo-only figures are excluded from the machine-readable official dataset.

From record to next call

No sample picks are standing in for official forecasts

This deployment is showing a labelled demo ledger. Sample prediction cards are not presented here as official next calls.

Open the clearly labelled predictions board

Time series

Monthly performance

Select a row to inspect that month’s settled matches.

Demo prediction performance grouped by month
MonthSettledCorrectHit rateBrier
April 20268675.0%0.143
May 20268337.5%0.205
June 20268450.0%0.218

Competition view

Accuracy by league

Follow a league name to compare the record with its current forecast board.

Demo prediction performance grouped by competition
LeagueSettledCorrectHit rateBrier
Premier League6466.7%0.173
FKF Premier League5480.0%0.170
La Liga5240.0%0.207
Serie A5120.0%0.215
Nigeria Premier Football League3266.7%0.176

Confidence audit

Predicted probability vs actual frequency

A well-calibrated 60% group should produce the selected outcome roughly six times in ten over a sufficiently large sample.

Demo forecasts grouped by confidence bucket
Confidence bandForecastsPredictedActualActual 95% intervalGapSample note
Below 40%536.8%20.0%3.6%–62.4%16.8%Small sample
40–49%745.0%71.4%35.9%–91.8%26.4%Small sample
50–59%855.4%50.0%21.5%–78.5%5.4%Small sample
60%+464.5%75.0%30.1%–95.4%10.5%Small sample

Why show a range? The Wilson 95% interval describes uncertainty around each bucket’s observed hit frequency. Wider ranges mean the available record supports less precision.

Buckets with fewer than 30 forecasts are explicitly marked “Small sample.” These intervals are descriptive uncertainty ranges, not a claim of statistical significance or proof that the model beats a benchmark.

Row-level proof

Recent settled predictions

Each row links to the same match URL that held the original pre-match forecast. This table currently contains the complete settled record.

Most recent settled demoforecasts
MatchPlayedTop pickResultScoreVerdict
Arsenal vs West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueHomeHome2–0Hit
Everton vs Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueAwayAway1–2Hit
Bandari vs Kakamega HomeboyzFKF Premier LeagueHomeHome1–0Hit
Barcelona vs Real BetisLa LigaHomeHome3–1Hit
Roma vs FiorentinaSerie AHomeDraw1–1Miss
Enyimba vs Kano PillarsNigeria Premier Football LeagueHomeHome2–1Hit
Athletic Club vs VillarrealLa LigaAwayDraw0–0Miss
Inter vs BolognaSerie AHomeHome2–0Hit
Manchester City vs ChelseaPremier LeagueHomeAway1–2Miss
Liverpool vs Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueHomeHome3–1Hit
Shabana vs Ulinzi StarsFKF Premier LeagueHomeDraw1–1Miss
Atletico Madrid vs SevillaLa LigaHomeHome2–0Hit
Napoli vs LazioSerie ADrawHome2–1Miss
Remo Stars vs Rivers UnitedNigeria Premier Football LeagueHomeDraw0–0Miss
Sofapaka vs KCBFKF Premier LeagueHomeHome1–0Hit
AC Milan vs AtalantaSerie AHomeAway1–2Miss
Aston Villa vs EvertonPremier LeagueHomeHome2–1Hit
Brentford vs FulhamPremier LeagueHomeDraw1–1Miss
Gor Mahia vs TuskerFKF Premier LeagueHomeHome2–0Hit
Real Madrid vs Real SociedadLa LigaHomeDraw2–2Miss
Juventus vs TorinoSerie AHomeDraw1–1Miss
Shooting Stars vs EnyimbaNigeria Premier Football LeagueAwayAway0–1Hit
AFC Leopards vs BandariFKF Premier LeagueHomeHome2–1Hit
Villarreal vs GetafeLa LigaHomeDraw0–0Miss