League model board
Independent home, draw and away probabilities published before kick-off, with the original call kept on the match page through live play and final review.
Demo league record
Current board
Open a match to see its timestamp, model version, probability table and the factors behind the call. Fixture times are shown in WAT; readers in Kenya can add two hours for EAT.
Premier League
Sat, 11 Jul · 15:00 WAT · 17:00 EAT
Arsenal
HomeAston Villa
AwayModel call
home
What moved the model
Premier League
Sat, 11 Jul · 17:30 WAT · 19:30 EAT
Chelsea
HomeNewcastle United
AwayModel call
home
Competition-specific evidence
This England Premier League board publishes one locked home-draw-away probability set per covered fixture, then keeps that same pre-match forecast beside the final result.
League-level hit rate and Brier score are kept separate from the global record, so a strong result elsewhere cannot disguise weak Premier League calibration.
Accountability
Demo model record
Results are settled from the final score. No deleted picks, no edited probabilities, no hiding behind a winning streak.
Probability check
| Model bucket | Predicted | Actual | Difference | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 40% | 37% | 20% | -17 pts | 5 |
| 40–49% | 45% | 71% | +26 pts | 7 |
| 50–59% | 55% | 50% | -5 pts | 8 |
| 60%+ | 65% | 75% | +11 pts | 4 |
Demo notice: accuracy figures on this preview are illustrative and are not a claim of live model performance.