Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction, Fair Odds & Result
Model answer: Away at 42%. Home is 30%, draw 28% and away 42%. These are clearly labelled sample figures until the production pipeline is connected.
One URL, complete history
Final — result reviewed
The original prediction is preserved beside the final score of 1–2.
Automatic post-match audit
Demo HitThe result is recorded without rewriting the forecast.
The locked top call was away win at 42%. The verified result was away win at 1–2.
- Final score
- 1–2
- Actual outcome
- Away win
- Probability assigned to result
- 42%
- Single-match Brier
- 0.168
- Latest settlement
- 2026-04-07T22:45:00.000Z
A single match cannot prove or disprove calibration. The score joins every other settled row on the public accuracy ledger.
Calibrated 1X2 view
Home, draw and away probabilities
- H · Everton
- 30%
- D · Draw
- 28%
- A · Newcastle United
- 42%
| H — Everton | D — Draw | A — Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 30%probability | 28%probability | 42%probability |
| 3.33fair odds | 3.57fair odds | 2.38fair odds |
Calibration mirror
What does this confidence mean in reality?
42% is the largest probability, not certainty. The other two outcomes still carry 58% combined, and the top two outcomes are separated by 12%.
No comparable record had settled before this forecast was published, so no historical frequency is inferred.
Open the calibration table →Historical probability shapes
Probability Neighbours
No eligible settled forecasts were available strictly before this prediction was published, so no historical-neighbour inference is made.
As of
A distance of 5% means five probability points must be redistributed to turn one 1X2 split into the other. Match results, scores, Hit/Miss labels and Brier scores never participate in neighbour selection. This historical view does not change the current prediction.
- Settled neighbours
- 0
- Selection scope
- No eligible cohort
- Mean distance
- —
- Maximum distance
- —
- Average Brier
- —
What actually happened
Observed H/D/A outcomes
- Home win
- 00.0%
- Draw
- 00.0%
- Away win
- 00.0%
Only forecasts settled before the current publication time can enter this view. No future result or substitute sample is shown.
Publication proof
Forecast identity
- Published
- Model version
- FPAI-LGBM 0.8.4
- Competition
- PREMIER-LEAGUE
- Confidence
- 42%
- Record SHA-256
- Not issued for demo data
Demo notice: the timestamp, model version and figures on this preview are sample data, so no production record fingerprint is issued. Official records are generated automatically at least 24 hours before kick-off.
Kito calibration challenge
Make your call before the whistle
Set your own home, draw and away split. It stays only in this browser, saves the match to your private desk, and can be scored beside the locked model after the result.
Loading your device-local call…
Your selected probabilities never leave this device · anonymous aggregate use counters respect Global Privacy Control and Do Not Track · excluded from the public ledger, accuracy, APIs and structured data · not betting advice
Interactive counterfactual
What would have to change?
Move three transparent assumptions and watch the probability shape respond. This is an educational sensitivity test, not a second model and never an edit to the demo record.
Nearest illustrative flip
5-point gridFind the smallest move from the neutral official baseline that puts another outcome at least 0.5 percentage points ahead.
This boundary is a sensitivity illustration—not a new prediction. Missing-information stress stays at 0 and the official record never changes.
- Top-two gap
- 12 pts
- Uncertainty
- Very high
- Official record
- Unchanged
Illustrative Scenario v1. Method: apply visible log-probability shifts, then normalise with softmax; the stress control raises temperature toward a flatter split. Boundary search uses only team balance and draw pressure on a 5-point grid, holds stress at zero, and requires the target to lead by at least 0.5 percentage points.
Why the model leans this way
Locked probability record
- 01
The locked home probability was 30%.
- 02
The locked draw probability was 28%.
- 03
The locked away probability was 42%.
Grounded record explainer
Ask Kito about this probability
Kito can read only this labelled demo record. It cannot browse for hidden context, change the probabilities, suggest a stake, or promise a result.
Instant evidence mode is deterministic and makes no external model request. Optional AI response planning remains off until a server-side OpenAI key and budget switch are configured. When enabled, the model can only choose a full or compact view of server-authored evidence.
This is a labelled demo record. The top call is away win at 42%. Across a sufficiently large set of genuinely comparable 42% forecasts, that outcome should occur about 42 times in 100—not every time. The other two outcomes still hold 58% combined probability.
- Locked probability splitHome 30% · Draw 28% · Away 42%
- Model versionFPAI-LGBM 0.8.4
- Publication time2026-04-05T10:30:00Z
Locked feature context
Model-generated explanation
The published top call was Away. The final result was Away at 1–2, so the forecast was recorded as a hit. This row remains visible as part of the complete demo record.
Generated only from the locked pre-match feature snapshot; maximum 120 words and no change to the official probabilities.