3,800 EPL matches · Ten seasons · Complete joint distribution
How Often Do BTTS and Over 2.5 Land in the Premier League?
Direct answer: across 3,800 Premier League matches, BTTS landed 52.76%, Over 2.5 landed 54.39%, but both landed together only 41.87%.
This is a frozen historical base-rate study—not a next-match prediction, AI accuracy claim or evidence of betting profit.
Published by Football Proof AI · Published · premier-league-btts-over-2-5-benchmark/1.0.0 · Editorial technical note; not externally peer reviewed
Canonical publication record
Abstract
A reproducible, aggregate-only study of 3,800 completed Premier League matches across ten seasons. It reports BTTS, Over 2.5, their complete two-by-two joint distribution, conditional overlap, season variation, Wilson intervals and hash-pinned source provenance without turning a historical base rate into a prediction or betting claim.
- Author and publisher
- Football Proof AI
- Publication version
premier-league-btts-over-2-5-benchmark/1.0.0- Published
- Last modified
- Release status
- Current release
- Review status
- Editorial technical note; not externally peer reviewed
- Production method
- Editorial dataset maintained from the declared method, linked sources and any listed reproducible artifacts.
- Software and AI assistance
- Software, including generative AI, may assist drafting, transformation or quality checks. It is not treated as a source, author or independent reviewer; factual and quantitative claims must remain bound to cited sources, declared methods or reproducible artifacts.
- Why this exists
- Enable readers to inspect assumptions, reproduce calculations and reject claims that exceed the published evidence.
- Commercial boundary
- No bookmaker, prediction provider or paid placement controls the evidence rules, calculations or conclusions on this page.
- Version history
premier-league-btts-over-2-5-benchmark/1.0.0: Initial public release.
- Immutable artifacts
- 1.0.0.json
sha256:7e46820101deaff40c44352cff7bd49663dd9975c9074847e73f24870935d84c - premier-league-btts-over-2-5-v1.csv
sha256:7d462eb4b30f6b281cd78a3fa4b543b8da8daa31dc2576a002f4088d621585ff - 1.0.0-manifest.json
sha256:c00ee83922a2938d7527393f6f892133d55dfc9e09cf7bd9b486faf441e1d2ac - premier-league-btts-over-2-5-generator-1.0.0.mjs
sha256:4f4c62727e4fbf5f21ec8587c44ca8c383e94214b00533b262b4c9437a4ec13d
- 1.0.0.json
- Release resources
Every EPL match in ten complete 380-match seasons.
2,005 matches · 95% CI 51.17%–54.35%.
2,067 matches · 95% CI 52.81%–55.97%.
1,591 matches · 95% CI 40.31%–43.44%.
Direct result · Exact numerator and denominator
BTTS and Over 2.5 were common. They were not interchangeable.
Across 3,800 Premier League matches, BTTS landed 52.76%, Over 2.5 landed 54.39%, but both landed together only 41.87%.
- BTTS Yes
- Both teams scored at least one regulation-time goal.
- Over 2.5
- At least three combined regulation-time goals.
- Coverage
- 2016-08-13 through 2026-05-24; ten complete seasons.
- Not established
- Future probability, model skill, causal explanation or profit.
Two-by-two joint table · Every match classified once
The 890 matches that separate the two market labels.
The diagonal is not the whole story. 414 matches had BTTS with no third goal; 476 had at least three goals while one team scored none.
41.87% of all 3,800 matches.
Every case is 1–1. The frozen scoreline table also records 414 such matches.
Examples include 3–0 and 0–3: three goals, but not two scoring teams.
0–0, 1–0, 0–1, 2–0 or 0–2 regulation-time scorelines.
Conditional overlap · Keep the denominator visible
“Given BTTS” and “given Over 2.5” answer different questions.
Both percentages use the same 1,591 joint matches as numerator. The denominator changes, so the answers do too.
1,591 / 2,005 · Wilson 95% CI 77.52%–81.07%.
1,591 / 2,067 · Wilson 95% CI 75.11%–78.74%.
Ten-season table · Same definitions every year
2023/24 was the high point in this window—not a causal finding.
In 2023/24, BTTS reached 61.58%, Over 2.5 reached 64.74% and both occurred in 51.58% of matches. The aggregate data do not explain why that season differed, and no trend is assumed to continue.
| Season | Matches | BTTS Yes | BTTS rate | BTTS 95% CI | Over 2.5 | Over rate | Over 95% CI | Both | Both rate | Mean goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 380 | 193 | 50.79% | 45.78%–55.78% | 206 | 54.21% | 49.18%–59.15% | 155 | 40.79% | 2.80 |
| 2017/18 | 380 | 186 | 48.95% | 43.96%–53.96% | 194 | 51.05% | 46.04%–56.04% | 141 | 37.11% | 2.68 |
| 2018/19 | 380 | 195 | 51.32% | 46.30%–56.30% | 204 | 53.68% | 48.66%–58.64% | 163 | 42.89% | 2.82 |
| 2019/20 | 380 | 194 | 51.05% | 46.04%–56.04% | 198 | 52.11% | 47.09%–57.08% | 145 | 38.16% | 2.72 |
| 2020/21 | 380 | 186 | 48.95% | 43.96%–53.96% | 190 | 50.00% | 45.00%–55.00% | 146 | 38.42% | 2.69 |
| 2021/22 | 380 | 190 | 50.00% | 45.00%–55.00% | 205 | 53.95% | 48.92%–58.89% | 148 | 38.95% | 2.82 |
| 2022/23 | 380 | 196 | 51.58% | 46.56%–56.56% | 200 | 52.63% | 47.61%–57.60% | 158 | 41.58% | 2.85 |
| 2023/24 | 380 | 234 | 61.58% | 56.60%–66.33% | 246 | 64.74% | 59.81%–69.37% | 196 | 51.58% | 3.28 |
| 2024/25 | 380 | 218 | 57.37% | 52.35%–62.24% | 215 | 56.58% | 51.55%–61.47% | 173 | 45.53% | 2.93 |
| 2025/26 | 380 | 213 | 56.05% | 51.03%–60.96% | 209 | 55.00% | 49.97%–59.93% | 166 | 43.68% | 2.75 |
Reproducible method · Aggregates only
Ten source hashes, four exhaustive cells, no hand-edited scorecard.
- 01
Verify source bytes
Each of ten Football-Data EPL CSV responses must match its declared SHA-256.
- 02
Keep completed matches
Every season must contain exactly 380 rows with H, D or A as the full-time result.
- 03
Validate each score
Full-time goals must be non-negative integers and must imply the published FTR label.
- 04
Apply fixed definitions
BTTS requires both goal counts above zero; Over 2.5 requires a total of at least three.
- 05
Preserve uncertainty
Every binary rate retains its integer count, denominator and Wilson 95% interval.
- 06
Freeze the release
Versioned JSON, CSV, manifest and generator bytes expose every aggregate used here.
Interpretation boundary · Read before reusing
A base rate is context, not a forecast.
The release answers what happened in this league and period. It does not tell you what will happen in one selected match.
- BoundaryThis is a single-league descriptive benchmark, not a universal football scoring rate.
- BoundaryThe categories describe historical outcomes and are not predictions, betting advice, evidence of profitability or causal estimates.
- BoundaryWilson intervals describe binomial sampling uncertainty only and do not establish match independence, future stability or significance across the displayed comparisons.
- BoundarySeason differences can reflect teams, tactics, schedules, rules, attendance conditions and chance; the aggregate data do not identify causes.
- BoundaryFootball-Data.co.uk makes the source CSVs publicly downloadable, but this release does not assert a redistribution licence for raw match rows and publishes aggregates only.
Open aggregates · Exact bytes · Rights kept separate
Download, reproduce and challenge the result.
Raw match rows are not republished. The original aggregate analysis is offered under CC BY 4.0 only to the extent Football Proof AI holds rights in it; source files remain with their publisher.
- JSON SHA-256
7e46820101deaff40c44352cff7bd49663dd9975c9074847e73f24870935d84c- CSV SHA-256
7d462eb4b30f6b281cd78a3fa4b543b8da8daa31dc2576a002f4088d621585ff- Manifest SHA-256
c00ee83922a2938d7527393f6f892133d55dfc9e09cf7bd9b486faf441e1d2ac- Generator SHA-256
4f4c62727e4fbf5f21ec8587c44ca8c383e94214b00533b262b4c9437a4ec13d
Premier League goals FAQ
Five direct answers with the denominator attached.
How often is BTTS in the Premier League?
BTTS occurred in 2,005 of 3,800 Premier League matches from 2016/17 through 2025/26: 52.76%. The Wilson 95% interval is 51.17%–54.35%. This is a ten-season historical base rate, not a forecast for the next match.
How often is Over 2.5 in the Premier League?
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2,067 of 3,800 matches: 54.39%. The Wilson 95% interval is 52.81%–55.97%. It means at least three regulation-time goals were scored.
Is BTTS the same as Over 2.5 goals?
No. Both events occurred in 1,591 matches, or 41.87% of the full sample. Over 2.5 occurred in 79.35% of BTTS matches, while BTTS occurred in 76.97% of Over 2.5 matches.
Can BTTS land with Under 2.5 goals?
Yes. It happened 414 times in this sample. Every such match finished 1–1: if both teams score and the total is no more than two goals, 1–1 is the only possible scoreline.
Do these BTTS and Over 2.5 rates prove a profitable strategy?
No. A historical occurrence rate is not a prediction, model evaluation, causal estimate or betting return. Profit analysis would also require prices, margin, selection timing, stakes and a prospectively locked decision rule.