{"schemaVersion":"premier-league-favourite-win-rate-benchmark/1.0.0","releaseDate":"2026-07-18","title":"Premier League favourite win-rate benchmark","description":"Aggregate favourite win rates, uncertainty and closing-probability bands for 1,900 completed English Premier League matches from 2021/22 through 2025/26. No raw match or odds rows are redistributed.","league":{"code":"E0","name":"English Premier League","country":"England"},"evaluation":{"seasons":["2021/22","2022/23","2023/24","2024/25","2025/26"],"matchCount":1900,"temporalCoverageStart":"2021-08-13","temporalCoverageEnd":"2026-05-24","uniqueFavouriteN":1899,"tiedTopProbabilityMatches":1},"definition":{"market":"Regulation-time home/draw/away closing average decimal odds in Football-Data AvgCH, AvgCD and AvgCA.","marginRemoval":"For each match, invert all three decimal odds and divide every inverse by their sum.","favourite":"The outcome with the unique maximum proportional no-vig probability; this is also the unique lowest decimal odd because proportional margin removal preserves ordering.","hit":"One when the uniquely most-probable outcome equals the completed H/D/A result; zero when it does not.","nonWin":"A draw or the opposing team winning when that result is not the unique favourite. It is not a profit, value-bet or causal upset definition.","topLabelTieRule":"A match with multiple probabilities within 1e-12 of the maximum is excluded from favourite-rate groups rather than resolved arbitrarily.","probabilityBins":"Ten pre-declared fixed-width [0,1] bins; left-inclusive and right-exclusive except the final bin includes 1.","thresholds":"Four pre-declared summaries: below 50%, at least 50%, at least 70% and at least 80% no-vig favourite probability.","uncertainty":"Wilson score interval at 95% for each observed binary rate; descriptive only and not adjusted for match dependence or multiple comparisons.","gap":"Observed favourite win rate minus mean no-vig favourite probability within the same group.","rounding":"Published probabilities, rates, gaps and interval bounds are rounded to 8 decimal places after aggregation from unrounded 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probability","operator":"<","thresholdProbability":0.5,"n":861,"wins":389,"nonWins":472,"winRate":0.45180023,"meanFavouriteProbability":0.42471187,"signedCalibrationGap":0.02708836,"wilson95":{"lower":0.41884539,"upper":0.48518326}},{"id":"at-least-50","label":"At least 50% favourite probability","operator":">=","thresholdProbability":0.5,"n":1038,"wins":674,"nonWins":364,"winRate":0.64932563,"meanFavouriteProbability":0.63670215,"signedCalibrationGap":0.01262348,"wilson95":{"lower":0.61979433,"upper":0.67775574}},{"id":"at-least-70","label":"At least 70% favourite probability","operator":">=","thresholdProbability":0.7,"n":270,"wins":215,"nonWins":55,"winRate":0.7962963,"meanFavouriteProbability":0.7720063,"signedCalibrationGap":0.02429,"wilson95":{"lower":0.74425724,"upper":0.84002244}},{"id":"at-least-80","label":"At least 80% favourite probability","operator":">=","thresholdProbability":0.8,"n":78,"wins":69,"nonWins":9,"winRate":0.88461538,"meanFavouriteProbability":0.83686502,"signedCalibrationGap":0.04775036,"wilson95":{"lower":0.79502987,"upper":0.93809489}}],"outcomeBaseRates":[{"outcome":"H","label":"Home","n":1900,"occurrences":839,"nonOccurrences":1061,"rate":0.44157895,"wilson95":{"lower":0.41939072,"upper":0.46400294}},{"outcome":"D","label":"Draw","n":1900,"occurrences":454,"nonOccurrences":1446,"rate":0.23894737,"wilson95":{"lower":0.22031147,"upper":0.25863674}},{"outcome":"A","label":"Away","n":1900,"occurrences":607,"nonOccurrences":1293,"rate":0.31947368,"wilson95":{"lower":0.29889014,"upper":0.34078574}}]},"source":{"publisher":"Football-Data.co.uk","landingPage":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php","notes":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/notes.txt","snapshotDate":"2026-07-14","rawRowsRedistributed":false,"files":[{"season":"2021/22","role":"evaluation","url":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2122/E0.csv","sha256":"335afcbabeb2939fa10ab39ba3e8215072d0b577cb8d0705c1e44c56e934e703","completedMatchRows":380},{"season":"2022/23","role":"evaluation","url":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2223/E0.csv","sha256":"8442792d3b614c94ea3cf381bd2736805889cc1713169035368fff19c3d02380","completedMatchRows":380},{"season":"2023/24","role":"evaluation","url":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2324/E0.csv","sha256":"b2e057b0ed959f198b0f63d2391c01239f3608e6de5db68edab3f88e04d07ff3","completedMatchRows":380},{"season":"2024/25","role":"evaluation","url":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2425/E0.csv","sha256":"d0c8ce4a96d886cf60cf101f570f4a3893844226f91c7bd769eb568c49edbfa4","completedMatchRows":380},{"season":"2025/26","role":"evaluation","url":"https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2526/E0.csv","sha256":"3e3a8352f9ada6789c508d6ca184424421fed56a30400904a4a327c583407e62","completedMatchRows":380}]},"crossChecks":{"status":"passed","empiricalBenchmark":{"schemaVersion":"football-1x2-empirical-benchmark/1.0.0","artifactPath":"/research/football-1x2-scoring-benchmark/empirical-1.0.0.json","artifactSha256":"2658cfc8bc1ff97782336cb0788941bd2adc2328ec0d9c14ef44ec25e4fe279c","manifestPath":"/research/football-1x2-scoring-benchmark/empirical-1.0.0-manifest.json","manifestSha256":"801f8c6c23e30f945dcba38e4c256fd4e9f3652f7e2ea965e4788f0e7cf9014a","checkedFields":["match 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hours before kick-off, so this is not a fair same-information AI model comparison.","A favourite non-win is not evidence of a profitable underdog bet, market inefficiency or a causal shock.","Wilson intervals describe binomial sampling uncertainty only and do not establish match independence, future stability or statistical significance across the many displayed groups.","Proportional margin removal is one declared conversion and does not recover a bookmaker's private probability model or the true chance of an outcome.","Football-Data.co.uk makes the source CSVs publicly downloadable, but this release does not assert a redistribution licence for raw match or odds rows and publishes aggregates only."]}